Agriculture > Perennial Crop General Approach > General Modeling Approach Diagram > Climate Observations or Scenarios

Climate Scenarios

An illustration of how the climate scenarios are being devloped. There are four cons labeled ECHAM, NCAR, Canadian, and Hadley. Those cons narrow down on East Jordan on a Michigan area map. Also, on the side of the con, it reads, A2 and B2.

An "ensemble" of daily temperature and precipitation scenarios was developed for 15 locations in the Great Lakes region. A minimum of 60 scenarios per climate parameter are available for each location. These scenarios are constructed using multiple downscaling methods applied to several Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations and can be summarized as follows:

15 locations
3 climate parameters
 -maximum temperature (Tmax)
 -minimum temperature (Tmin)
 -precipitation
4 GCMs
 -CCC CGCM2
 -HadCM2
 -MPI ECHAM4
 -NCAR CSM1.2
2 emission scenarios
 -A2
 -B2
5 downscaling methodologies