Pileus Project - General Approach of Future Scenarios

General Approach of Future Scenarios

In order to provide an initial estimate of the uncertainty surrounding the climate scenarios, an ensemble (or suite) of scenarios was developed using simulations from several Global Climate Models (GCMs), different projections of greenhouse gas emissions, and several methods for downscaling GCM simulations to a finer spatial resolution.

An illustration of how the climate scenarios are being devloped. There are four cons labeled ECHAM, NCAR, Canadian, and Hadley. Those cons narrow down on East Jordan on a Michigan area map. Also, on the side of the con, it reads, A2 and B2.

At the core of most climate impact studies are one or more scenarios that describe potential future climate conditions. For the models developed as part of the Pileus Project, climate scenarios at the local spatial scale and daily temporal scale are required. Daily temperature and precipitation scenarios were developed for 15 locations in the Great Lakes region. One goal of the Pileus Project is transparency. We strive to clearly communicate to users the methods used to develop the scenarios and the uncertainty surrounding the scenarios.