Climate > Future Scenarios Tool User Cases > Case 5

Future Scenarios Tool User Case 5

Photo of rainy day

Photo by LifeShadows' photos, Flickr

What are some of the implications for tourism of changes in the length of sequences of wet days?

Recreational campers usually will tolerate one or two days of rainy weather, but longer sequences of wet days are often enough for campers (especially tent campers) to pull up stakes and return home. The Future Scenarios Tool allows users to display the frequency of different sequences of wet days.

Using East Jordan as an example, click on “Tourism”, “Wet Day Sequences”, “Season – summer”, and “3 wet days in a row”. (See Screenshot 1 below)

Screenshot 1
screenshot of the Future Scenarios Tool's input page

Now click on “View Result”.  The plot for the reference climate (Screenshot 2) shows how often exactly three wet days in a row occurred during each summer season (defined as June, July and August) from 1981 through 2000.  The median value is two occurrences per year. 

Screenshot 2
screenshot of the Future Scenarios Tool's result page

Now choose the “Early vs. Mid Century” display (Screenshot 3).  Similar to several of the user cases shown earlier, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the projected changes. For the early-century, the average projected change for all the scenarios is zero, suggesting little change in the frequency of three wet days in a sequence.  For the mid-century period, the average across all the scenarios suggests one less sequence of three wet days per summer season.

Screenshot 3
screenshot of the Future Scenarios Tool's result page