Tourism > Winter Recreation General Approach: Modeling Philosophy

Winter Recreation General Approach

Modeling Philosophy

Short term applications of SkiTool are based on historical climate conditions over the period 1970-2000. Rather than display the output for each station as a time series, researchers decided it would be more advantageous to cluster the output for each location in terms of warm, cold, and normal years. Thus model output is displayed in terms of probabilities of excedence. The probabilistic approach is more appropriate because of the partial overlap in snow conditions between warm and cold years. It is also consistent with the display format for the climate change results and therefore less confusing.